Predictive Delivery Model

What is
a delivery?

We bill for what ships, not for time logged. That model only works if everyone — including you — has the same answer to one question: what counts?

A delivery is a discrete, validated unit of work that produces a measurable change in a business objective — shipped, tested, and observable in production.

Every word is load-bearing

This is not a general description. It is a precise commitment. Each term below rules something in and rules something out.

Discrete

A clear start and end. One delivery does not bleed into another. You can point to it and see exactly when it entered the system and when it shipped.

Validated

Someone other than the person who built it confirmed it does what it was supposed to do. It passed the agreed acceptance criteria defined before implementation started.

Measurable change

Before this delivery, the business or user could not do something — or did it worse, slower, or at greater risk. After it ships, something observable is different.

In production

Staging does not count. A demo does not count. A delivery is live, accessible, and doing its job in the real environment where it creates value.

Three conditions. All three.

Before any piece of work enters the delivery system, it must satisfy all three of these conditions. Two out of three is not enough.

Three types of work count

All three types must satisfy the three requirements above. The type determines the nature of the work — not whether the definition applies.

Story

User or business-facing capability

A new behavior, feature, or experience that an end user or business stakeholder can observe directly.

Task

Operational or technical work

Infrastructure work, dependency upgrades, integrations, and configuration that produces a concrete, observable output.

Bug

Verified defect resolved in production

A confirmed defect that causes the system to behave differently from agreed acceptance criteria, resolved and confirmed in production.

What deliveries look like

The definition is abstract. These examples are concrete. Each one shows what qualifies and — equally important — what does not.

Story Insurance brokerage — online quote request form
+

A CPG insurance broker wants to reduce friction for small brands seeking general liability coverage. Prospects currently contact the team by email and wait 2–3 days for a quote.

This is a delivery

Enable prospects to submit a GL quote request via a structured online form that routes directly to the broker's intake workflow, with a confirmation sent within 60 seconds.

These are not deliveries
  • The form existing in staging but not yet connected to the intake workflow
  • A Figma mockup of the form
  • Each individual input field built separately
Task Any platform — Node.js runtime upgrade
+

The platform is running Node.js 16, which reaches end-of-life and will no longer receive security patches.

This is a delivery

Upgrade Node.js runtime from v16 to v20 LTS across all services, validate that all existing test suites pass, and deploy to production with a rollback plan documented.

These are not deliveries
  • Upgrading Node.js in the local development environment only
  • Completing the upgrade in staging without deploying to production
  • Each individual service counted as a separate delivery
Bug Any engagement — production defect resolved
+

A client reports that the password reset flow silently fails for accounts created via Google OAuth. Users receive no error and no email.

This is a delivery

The bug is verified against the original acceptance criteria, reproduced, fixed, and confirmed resolved in production.

These are not deliveries
  • The bug identified but only fixed in staging
  • The fix deployed without validation from the client
  • A workaround documented without the underlying defect resolved

Six questions. All six must be yes.

Before any item is committed as a delivery, it goes through this test. If any answer is no, the work is not ready to enter the delivery system.

Check each question as you confirm it. All six must be answered yes before the work is a delivery.

  • Can I name the business objective this delivery serves?
  • Can I describe what is observably different in the business after this ships?
  • Are the acceptance criteria written in plain language, before implementation starts?
  • Can someone other than the builder validate it against those criteria?
  • Will this be live in production when it counts as done?
  • Can this be completed within one delivery cycle?
0 / 6 confirmed

A delivery is a commitment, not an activity.

Hourly billing was built around activity. Log the hours, bill the hours. Whether the work moved the business forward was someone else's problem.

Predictive software delivery is built around commitment. We commit to a delivery, define what done means before we start, validate it in production against those criteria, and stand behind the forecast with a guarantee.

Every forecast we make, every invoice we send, every conversation about what you got for your investment — it all rests on this definition being clear, consistent, and lived.

Start Here

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  • Competitive landscape — where you can differentiate and win
  • Risk areas — regulatory, technical, and market challenges
  • Growth opportunities — where to evolve after launch
  • Delivery forecast — scope, timeline, and cost to get there
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Area
RiskOpportunity
Regulatory
HIPAA · State filing
Market Fit
Competitive positioning
Growth
Post-launch evolution
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